by Lucia Rotta
ROMA (ITALPRESS) – It is not to be excluded “a collapse of the Iranian regime, especially considering that it is not only under external attack, but also with a creeping revolt and only partially suffocated in the blood”. It is the opinion of Emanuele Ottolenghi, senior advisor of 240 Analytics, data processing platform to identify potential methods of financing terrorism.
“It is difficult to predict, for now, how long the conflict can last: the goals of the United States are clearly ambitious – the collapse of the regime above all”, explained Ottolenghi interviewed by the Italpress agency. “However, as in the 12-day war of June 2025, it surprises the poor level of preparation of the regime, which in the first hours of war has lost part of its leadership, has shown that it has not been able to reconstitute its anti-aircraft defenses, has already lost the supremacy of the skies, and has attacked all the neighboring countries, including those with which it had friendly relations like the Oman, Qatar and Iraq,” he added.
The second wave of attacks, emphasizes Ottolenghi, hit many other leaders and is systematically dismantled command and control structures of army and pasdaran. “It is not to be excluded therefore a collapse of the regime, especially considering that it is not only under external attack, but also with a creeping revolt and only partially suffocated in the blood”, he continued.
The Iranian strategy, according to the expert, for now seems to be aimed at “chaining hell” along the Arabian coast of the Gulf, also trying to close the Strait of Hormuz. “They shot more bullets against the United Arab Emirates than against Israel in the first 24 hours of war. But it is a strategy that I believe is rapidly turning against him: for the U.S. have certainly foreseen this possibility and will focus on neutralizing Iranian naval forces; and then because, politically, Iranian aggression against Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Emirates, Jordan, Oman and Qatar has done nothing but to remove the latest hesitations and push them to align solidly alongside the U.S.”.
Within the next 72 hours, Ottolenghi said, the picture should be clearer. “In the meantime, after four days of war we will know whether the leadership decapitation strategy has reached or is reaching the goals of inability of the regime. Operations against anti-aircraft defenses, missile ramps and missile infrastructure should also put the Islamic Republic in a position not to harm. If the successive waves of joint Israeli and U.S. attacks complete these goals, then it would only be affected by the remaining nuclear program,” said the senior advisor.
It remains the unknown of the Greek groups – Hezbollah, the Houthi, Hamas and the Iraqi militias. “The latter have already been mobilized against US military targets in Iraq, but with little results. For now, Hezbollah and the Houthi are watching. They have been strongly weakened by Israel in the last 28 months, and species Hezbollah risks a lot, in a domestic context today strongly hostile, attracting on itself the attention of the Israeli aviation”, Ottolenghi explained. “These groups have always been part of Iranian defense doctrine. We could see them soon joined to defend their sponsor, and we could also expect their role in asymmetrical attacks. In other words: terrorism”, he concluded.
-Photo staff Ottolenghi-
(ITALPRESS).
