ROMA (ITALPRESS) – “The conflict” in Iran “has strongly accentuated the fragility of a global context already marked by geopolitical and commercial tensions. The interruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has determined the suspension of supplies, a marked increase of the international quotations of hydrocarbons” and strong uncertainties on the future availability of ” raw materials, not only energy. The economic consequences will depend on the duration, the amount of damage on infrastructure and the times to restore supply chains.” Thus the representatives of Banca d’Italia, in audition at the Joint Committees Budget of Chamber and Senate on the Dfp.
“The response to energy shock should be limited to targeted interventions and limited entities and duration, preserving price signals, essential for orienting consumer choices and promoting more efficient use of energy and the transition to energy sources less exposed to geopolitical risks. As envisaged by the DFP, these interventions could find cover in the remodelling of other budget headings.”.
PROSPETTIVE CRESCITA BRUSCAMENTE PEGGIORATE DOPO INIZIO CONFLITTO
“In Italy, GDP grew by 0.5% in 2025, despite trade tensions triggered by rising US duties and accelerated geopolitical uncertainty. Some signs of improvement of economic activity in the second half of 2025 continued in the first two months of 2026. However, the prospects are sharply worsened after the beginning of hostilities in the Middle East.” Thus the head of the Economics and Statistics Department of the Bank of Italy, Andrea Brandolini.
“In March, the flow of orders of manufacturing companies has remained high, but the increased tensions on costs and the difficulties of supplying some productive inputs begin to weigh on the expected operating conditions. The net worsening of the climate of trust of the families could prelude to a greater attention in the purchases and to a weakening of the consumption expense – he adds -. Industrial production fell overall in the two-month period January-February 2026, especially in the sectors that had recorded the most intense growth the previous year, but overall in the first quarter the SME indices remained more favourable than at the end of 2025′′′.
QUADRO COERENTE CON NOSTRE STIME
“The Dfp prefigures a product growth of 0.6% both this year and next, which rises to 0.8% in the next two years; the inflation rate would increase to 2.9% in 2026, but would fall in the following years, in line with the expected evolution of the energy component. It is a pre-visual framework substantially consistent with the estimates formulated in April by the Bank of Italy, as well as with the indications of the main national and international auditors.”.
BENE PRUDENZA CONTI, MA NON SUFFICIENTE SENZA RIFORME
“The prudence in the management of public accounts and the desire to respect the new framework of European rules have been appreciated both by investors – with a marked reduction of the differential of performance between the Italian and German government bonds – both by rating agencies – and in 2025 have reviewed the assessment of the credit merit of the Italian state. Banks, businesses and families can benefit from these developments, which benefit from a lower cost of debt. However, the prudence in the management of public accounts will not be sufficient if it is not accompanied by a reform action that creates the conditions for innovation and productivity growth.”.
“The limited margins available derive, even before the rules of European governance, from the need to place the debt in relation to the product on a descending path. According to the DFP framework, this would happen from 2027. It would be a positive signal of great importance, even for the confidence of the savers and for the assessment that we give of our country on the financial markets”.
– Photo IPA Agency –
(ITALPRESS).
