Despite initially favorable polls and a growing polarization of the political debate, the Dems lost ground in several crucial areas, leading to defeat in the presidential election and the loss of seats in Parliament. But what were the main mistakes that led to this debacle?
The fiery red of the map published by The City NYC, represents well all the areas of progressive New York that have shifted to the right and preferred to vote for Trump this year than in 2020. The more red they are, the more they have shifted to the right, although it does not mean they are still in the majority-New York still remains Democratic.
There is, however, a segment of New York’s middle-class population that has turned, that is exhausted from paying for services it cannot receive because it is often not poor enough to be entitled to them, despite the fact that at the same time it is not so rich that it does not need them. And on top of taxes, the rising cost of apartments, rising expenses, and gas and electric bills that are a blow to the heart each month.
The Democratic Party has taken this segment of the electorate for granted, in big cities, for at least two decades. Maps like this one, and there are other examples in other liberal cities like Philadelphia, are screaming at the party that should be there to represent these people, that maybe it would be time to get back to doing something for them, not to mention the Fentalyn issue that is disrupting the lives of so many.
In fact, one of the Democrats’ main strategic mistakes has been exactly that.
Underestimate what the American wants, desires, strongly yearns for: economic capability, security, independence, not welfare. Not wild immigration. Not the lack of personal protection on the streets. There is a yearning for a hard, firm pulse.
And that was the mistake: underestimating the entrenchment and impact of Trump’s message, especially in rural areas and among the middle class. The popular vote shows this. Despite declining support among some demographic groups, the Trumpian movement has shown resilience and mobilization beyond expectations. The Democrats, on the other hand, focused on issues deemed more universal, such as social justice, women and environmental sustainability, and “Woke” policies that, while important, failed to fully capture the economic and labor concerns of less urbanized voters.
Balle di fieno bardate in sostegno a Trump a Willard, Missouri | via Shutterstock
They have invested fewer resources in rural and industrial areas, where discontent with the economic situation is greatest.
Themes far removed from common feeling, as those suffering from their social condition feel alienated from issues such as climate change and the issue of ” rights,” perceived as primary to social and economic security.
In addition, Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw late from the race prevented the holding of primaries, making Harris’ candidacy appear to be a top-down choice without an internal democratic process.
The absence of a strong and unified leadership such as his, rushed into the field at the last minute to cover a chasm after Biden’s retirement, thrown into a campaign worth a minimum of northerners, further weakened the Democrats’ message. Unlike the Republican Party, which showed cohesion around the figure of Trump, the Dems also appeared divided between the progressive and moderate wings. This created a lack of clear vision, making it difficult for voters to identify with a consistent message.
Poor Youth and Minority Base Involvement is another aspect to consider.
Dems have always had broad support among young people and minorities, but this time they failed to motivate them as in the past. The failure to create a truly inclusive and inspirational message has resulted in many potential voters remaining disinterested or disillusioned.
Many young people and minority representatives have perceived a lack of concrete action in the four years of Biden’s regency on cherished issues, such as education and police reform, and the campaign has not taken full advantage of new social platforms and digital channels to engage young people in a meaningful way.
Trump’s Key Issues were Security and Economy, important, pressing issues.
Democrats, on the other hand, invested a lot of energy on issues that, although equally important, did not resonate with voters’ perceived urgency on economic and security issues. Trump, on the other hand, was able to manipulate the discourse on “law and order” and the economic interests of lower and middle Americans by offering simple and straightforward answers, capitalized on fears about crime and city safety, and attracted voters concerned about the crime narrative. The Republican message succeeded in convincing many people that Trump would foster a post-pandemic economic revival by emphasizing an “America First” policy that resonated with middle-class voters.
The election, moreover, was characterized by a massive spread of accusations, fake news and conspiracy theories by the left, who instead of being committed to defending their own values, were blaming their opponent.
Trump’s victory was a clear defeat for the Democratic Party, which found itself unprepared to respond to its opponent’s charisma and direct communication. To recover, they will have to do some deep soul-searching and redefine their priorities, focusing on a message that is more cohesive and close to the concrete needs of American voters. Not enough VIPs and showbiz personalities, by the way, far removed from the issues of lower-middle class citizens, and especially far removed from the below-average lifestyles of many people today from years ago, but they need to return to talking to voters with a more realistic and inclusive approach. And above all, not to focus on demonizing the opponent, but to find ourselves listening and dialoguing to regain the trust of Americans and to avoid a new debacle in the next election.
Without a clear and detailed program, it risks losing its identity, presenting itself as an anti-Trump force rather than a political force with an autonomous and proactive vision, especially in a context of economic crisis and uncertainty, such as that in which post-Covid America finds itself, where citizens and businesses seek solutions, not ideological clashes.
Aggressive rhetoric risks appearing deaf to real concerns and generating a disconnect between the party and citizens. People want to hear concrete proposals that have a direct impact on their daily lives and that can solve problems such as the cost of living, access to jobs, and the quality of education.
It did not pay to focus the election program on women, abortion, Civil Rights and immigration.
It is populism. More is needed.
The article The <i>Dem Debacle</i> and Trump’s victory comes from TheNewyorker.
