ROME (ITALPRESS) – Italian GDP is expected to grow by 0.5 percent in 2024 and 0.8 percent in 2025. This is announced by Istat, pointing out that in 2024 the GDP increase would be supported by the contribution of net foreign demand (+0.7 p.p.), while domestic demand would provide a negative contribution (-0.2 p.p.). In 2025, however, the growth of the Italian economy would be driven by domestic demand (+0.8 p.p.). Private household consumption continues to be supported by the strengthening of the labor market and the increase in real wages; the continuation of these trends would lead to a slight acceleration of their growth rate in 2025 (+1.1 percent, after +0.6 percent in 2024).
Also according to the Institute of Statistics, gross fixed capital formation is found to grow weakly in 2024 (+0.4 percent from +8.7 percent in 2023), due to the disappearance of fiscal stimulus for construction; the effect of the end of fiscal stimulus would be even larger in 2025 when, despite the positive boost from the implementation of the measures envisaged in the NRP and the reduction in interest rates, the investment growth rate would be zero.
The brisk employment dynamics observed during 2024, measured in terms of labor units (LAUs), would be significantly higher (+1.2 percent) than that of GDP; these different dynamics would realign in 2025 (+0.8 percent for GDP and labor units). Improvements in the labor market would favor a sharp reduction in the unemployment rate in 2024 (6.5%, from 7.5% in 2023), which would be followed by a further, slight reduction the following year (6.2%).
The return of the inflation rate, favored by the contraction effect of energy goods prices observed in 2024, underlies the strong deceleration of the deflator of resident household spending (+1.1%, from +5.1% in 2023); by 2025, the resilience of incomes and consumption should lead to a rise in the household spending deflator (+2.0%).
– Istat press office photo –
(ITALPRESS).
