The far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved a historic breakthrough on Sunday by winning the state elections in Thuringia for the first time. The party also performed strongly in Saxony, narrowly finishing second behind the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Despite these gains, it remains highly unlikely that the AfD will form the government in either state, as no other party is willing to ally with them. The CDU is expected to attempt to build a coalition, but this will prove challenging. Nonetheless, AfD’s control of one-third of the seats in the Thuringia parliament and nearly one-third in Saxony will give them significant influence, enabling them to complicate the work of other parties.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed his concerns on Monday, describing the results as “worrying.” “Our country cannot and must not get used to this. AfD is damaging Germany by weakening the economy, dividing society, and tarnishing the country’s reputation,” Scholz told Reuters, speaking as the leader of the Social Democrats (SPD). He called on parties to form governments without the “far-right extremists,” and it appears the informal “cordon sanitaire” agreement, where parties pledge not to cooperate with the far right, will be upheld once again.
Sunday’s results were particularly disappointing for the parties in Scholz’s government. The Free Democrats (FDP) failed to pass the 5% threshold in both states, while the Greens barely crossed it in Saxony with 5.1%. In both Thuringia and Saxony, the SPD garnered less than 10% of the vote. This decline among the governing parties has elevated the CDU, which was already in power in Saxony and is likely to return to government in Thuringia after ten years in opposition. The primary challenge for the center-right CDU will be deciding with whom to ally at the local level.
In Thuringia, Bodo Ramelow, a moderate figure from the left-wing Linke party, has seen his support more than halved after governing the state since 2014. Ramelow led a minority government with the Greens and SPD, supported by a parliamentary pact with the CDU. The CDU’s candidate for governor, Mario Voigt, is expected to propose an alliance with the SPD, though this alone will not secure a majority. The CDU will need to explore collaboration with the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a populist party that will also play a decisive role in forming the government in Saxony.
In Saxony, incumbent Governor Michael Kretschmer has ruled out any deal with AfD. The state parliament could see a majority with either a coalition of CDU, SPD, and BSW or one of CDU, BSW, and Greens. However, the outgoing coalition of CDU, Greens, and SPD will no longer hold a majority. A technical error in publishing the results initially gave AfD a “blocking minority” of one-third of the seats, but corrected results now show that they narrowly missed this threshold, impacting their influence on critical decisions.
The success of the AfD in these elections reflects a broader shift in voter sentiment. According to early analysis, more than half of AfD’s voters supported the party because they believed in its proposals, rather than as a protest vote. This indicates that the far-right has developed a stable voter base beyond those merely disillusioned with other parties. Meanwhile, over half of CDU voters said they backed the center-right primarily to prevent AfD from gaining power.
The next state elections will be held on September 22 in Brandenburg, where AfD is currently polling in first place with 24.6%. Here, the SPD has governed with the CDU and Greens under Dietmar Woidke. If the polling numbers hold, the outgoing coalition will lose its majority, making the votes of BSW crucial for forming a new government.
