From the Zurich draw came a déjà-vu confirmation: home-field advantage in the semifinal, disadvantage in the decisive match. If Italy beat Northern Ireland, they’ll have to fight for a World Cup berth away in Wales or Bosnia…
There was a moment, right when the ball with Italy’s name came out of the urn first, when a lot of shoulders loosened up. The semifinal opponent will be Northern Ireland, the least dangerous of the group, and the March 26 match will be played at home, most likely in Bergamo. But the relief evaporated instantly when the second part of the verdict arrived: in a potential final on March 31, the Azzurri will be on the road. Cardiff or Zenica, no alternatives. It’s a story Italy have seen before, and these stories never bring good memories.
Gattuso tried to maintain the balance expected of him: “Northern Ireland are within our reach,” he said, and it’s true. But he also added that a big performance will be needed, because this Italy side don’t have the experience or the solidity to afford arrogance. Everyone knows it: the path looks easy only on paper. The Irish play exactly as expected — physical, aggressive, organized. They’re a team that compensates technical limits with pace and intensity, and away from home they sit deep like in the old British manuals of “don’t concede first.” Anyone who thinks it’ll be a stroll risks discovering the opposite.
All this sits against the backdrop of the structural injustice of playoffs that protect the top seeds — like Italy — only at the first hurdle, then abandon them to luck for the decisive match. It happened in 2022, when Italy found themselves projected toward Portugal… without ever getting there. It’s happening again now, while Gravina remains silent and the regulations continue to reward second-tier teams with home-field advantage in the match that decides a World Cup spot. A recurring paradox, feeding that sense of institutional fragility that follows the national team just as much as their technical fragility.
Italy, if we think about it, can’t hide this time either. Not after the debacle at San Siro against Norway, not after years spent clawing back frustration more than standings. Inside the Azzurri staff everyone knows: the problem isn’t so much technical-tactical as mental. Gattuso spoke of “fragility,” of a team that, when everything goes right, can compete, but when they get even one thing wrong, they melt like snow in the sun. That’s why he asked to halt the league — like they do in Turkey — to prepare for the two decisive matches. And that’s why he demanded a training camp, even a short one, to look his players in the eye more than to rehearse patterns.
Northern Ireland, for their part, reacted without fanfare: “The worst possible draw,” wrote the Belfast Telegraph. The BBC pointed out that, according to FIFA rankings, it couldn’t have gone worse. And yet nobody in their media thinks it’s impossible. They’ll play without pressure, while Italy will carry the weight of two missed qualifications and the specter of a third straight failure.
That’s the paradox: Italy have everything needed to qualify, and at the same time everything needed to complicate their own lives. Buffon — who now speaks with the wisdom of a veteran — called it a setback that could be a blessing: a chance to rediscover humility, order, and focus. But the last two failed qualifications and the road through the Nations League and the World Cup qualifying group have left wounds that can’t be healed with a catchy quote.
In the end, qualifying for the World Cup would require just two wins. One at home and one away. In the end, it should be routine. Instead, it’s become an ordeal — not because of the caliber of the opponents, but because of Italy themselves. And as the bracket locks in and the calendar takes shape, the sense is that the Azzurri will have to play against Northern Ireland, against Wales or Bosnia, and above all against their own recent past.
That’s always the toughest match.
L’articolo Playoff World Cup: Italy–Northern Ireland, (possible) final on the road proviene da Soccer Made In Italy.
