Gasperini’s side is the breakout story of this early season. Milan win the derby “di corto muso” and catch Napoli in second place.
After 12 league matches — roughly one-third of a full 38-game Serie A season — Roma sit alone at the top of the table: 27 points out of 36, built on 9 wins and 3 losses, with no draws.
The Giallorossi hadn’t been sole leaders after 12 rounds since the 2013/14 season, when Rudi Garcia’s Roma collected an incredible 32 points, one more than Conte’s Juventus — who would go on to win the league with a record 102 points.
That Roma finished second with 85 points, a result today’s club (seeking a return to the Champions League for the first time since 2017/18) would undoubtedly sign for. But as the Italian saying goes, “appetite comes while eating,” and Roma supporters are starting to dream of the Scudetto — a title that has been missing in the capital since 2000/01.
Gasperini has been repeating for weeks that the fans’ dream is legitimate, further fueling a fanbase that has begun singing a chant once considered taboo inside the stadium: “Vinceremo il tricolor!”
After Cremonese–Roma, the coach reiterated a familiar message: “It’s right to dream when you’re in this position. We know very well that dreams rarely come true, but it’s great living inside one. We’re living it, and as long as we can, we pretend not to wake up — we fall asleep a little more and try to stretch it out.”
To understand how realistic Roma’s hopes are of holding onto first place and finishing the season with a major trophy, we dug into data from the last 12 Serie A seasons, beginning with 2013/14 — the last time Roma were sole leaders after 12 matches.
We’ve already spoiled the ending of that season: Roma didn’t win the title, and in truth they didn’t come close, finishing 17 points behind record-setting Juventus. Still, that second-place finish opens the door to a broader and more intriguing question: based on the last 12 Serie A seasons, what are the odds that the team leading after 12 rounds finishes in a Champions League spot?
The probability is extremely high — 92%, to be exact. In 11 of the last 12 seasons, the team that led after 12 matches finished at least second, well inside Champions League qualification.
The lone exception came in the 2015/16 season, when Fiorentina and Inter were joint leaders on 27 points after 12 rounds: Inter finished fourth and Fiorentina fifth, both missing out on the Champions League. Today, that fourth place would be enough for qualification. Fifth place would be enough only if Italy secured a top-two federation ranking, as happened in 2023/24.
If we look only at cases of sole leadership — like Roma today — the probability of finishing in a Champions League place is 100%. It has never happened that a team leading alone after 12 matches dropped below second place by season’s end.
In 10 of the last 12 seasons, there was a sole leader after Matchday 12. In 7 of those 10 cases — 70% — the team on top went on to win the Scudetto.
Including shared leadership cases, the only other example besides 2015/16 came in 2021/22, when Milan and Napoli were tied on 32 points after 12 matches. Milan then went on to win the title.
The numbers suggest Roma have about a 70% chance of winning the league and over a 90% chance of comfortably reaching their stated seasonal objective: a return to the Champions League. Or do they? The discussion is more nuanced.
If statistics offer cold, incontrovertible truths, predictions do not — they remain projections subject to countless variables. In football, as in all sports, a single centimeter “can make the difference between victory and defeat” (Any Given Sunday), an injury can derail the best-laid plans, and a sudden slip can undo a perfect run.
What the numbers can tell us is that 12 matches represent a highly reliable data sample in a 20-team Serie A: trends at the top revealed in the first 12 rounds almost always hold (Champions League-level trends), meaning the old saying “well begun is half done” has statistical weight — especially since one-third of the season is more than just an “early stage.”
Last 12 Serie A Seasons — Snapshot After 12 Rounds
SeasonLeader After 12 Matchdays (pts)Scudetto Winner (pts)Roma After 12 MDs (pts / position)2013/14Roma 32Juventus 10232 pts – 1st2014/15Juventus 31Juventus 8728 pts – 2nd2015/16Fiorentina / Inter 27Juventus 9126 pts – 3rd2016/17Juventus 30Juventus 9126 pts – 2nd2017/18Napoli 32Juventus 9528 pts – 5th2018/19Juventus 34Juventus 9019 pts – 6th2019/20Juventus 32Juventus 8322 pts – 6th2020/21Milan 28Inter 9124 pts – 5th2021/22Milan / Napoli 32Milan 8619 pts – 6th2022/23Napoli 32Napoli 9025 pts – 4th2023/24Inter 31Inter 9418 pts – 7th2024/25Napoli 26Napoli 8213 pts – 12th
The table shows data from the last 12 Serie A seasons. In the second column, teams highlighted in green (in the original dataset) were the ones that led after 12 matches and went on to win the Scudetto. The final column shows Roma’s position and points after 12 rounds in each of the past 12 seasons.
Speaking of starts, Inter under Chivu have been far too inconsistent this season, as confirmed by Sunday night’s big match against Milan. Even the coach admitted: “Four losses in the first 12 matches are too many.”
Again, statistics explain a lot but not everything: the derby defeat was far more about randomness (and a series of unlucky breaks) than about actual shortcomings. Chivu’s side generated more xG, hit the woodwork, and missed a penalty, while Milan capitalized fully on their lone real chance.
As always, the final score is what counts — and Allegri’s “di corto muso” win pushes Milan into second place, level on points with Napoli. Inter drop to fourth, tied with Italiano’s Bologna, a side that must now be considered a new force in Serie A and seems to have taken Atalanta’s old place — a club now mourning the loss of Gasperini’s era.
Atalanta’s struggles (already forced to change managers after Juric’s dismissal following 10 matches and now sitting 13th) reinforce the importance of coaching in modern football: while Atalanta sink, Gasperini’s Roma fly, further boosting the stock of the Grugliasco-born manager.
What’s certain is that this league campaign is truly compelling and unpredictable: at the top the table is razor-tight, with just three points separating first from fifth — meaning a single matchday can completely reshape the hierarchy.
The first significant gap forming at the top is Juventus’: seven points off the lead is a steep climb for a team that has already changed managers and struggles to find both entertaining football and a reliable core of key players. And to think that Matías Soulé — sacrificed last season for a capital gain — is now the driving force of league-leading Roma, sitting seven points clear of a Juventus side still searching for a true on-field hero…
L’articolo Roma Alone at the Top After 12 Serie A Matches. A Razor-Tight Table proviene da Soccer Made In Italy.
