ROMA (ITALPRESS) – The annual CER report on the energy transition photographing a situation increasingly marked by a triple system – the United States, the EU and China – was presented today in Rome. In particular, the Report shows that: the EU continues to reduce emissions structurally, while the US and China favour energy security and industrial development; 2025 marks a critical point for Italy: According to the evaluations of the CER, the Italian emissions would return to rise, up to 371.7 million tons of CO2 equivalent (+0.2%), with a decrease of the renewable quota to 21,7% and an increase of the use of gas (+2.1%). According to the CER, in 2026 the emissions could come back to shrink, while in 2027 the decline would become more significant (-1.6%), up to 363,9 million tons of CO2 equivalent, provided however that the authorization routes are unlocked.
And again: Credit becomes more selective. Enterprises without transition strategies risk less access to finance; China guides the world’s renewable capacity (over 260 GW installed in 2024) and dominates the supply chains of clean technologies, pursuing a difficult balance with the needs of industrial development, so that emissions remain growing and reach 15.5 billion tons of CO2 equivalent.
The works were opened by Stefano Fantacone, Director of Research CER, who illustrated the data of the Report, Giovanni Acampora, member of Giunta Confcommercio with assignment to ecological transition and sustainability, and Andrea Migliore, Executive Business Development & Sales Director RINA Prime. The meeting was attended by: Vinicio Peluffo, Democratic Party; Luca Squeri, Forza Italia; Riccardo Zucconi, Fratelli d’Italia.
“The transition proceeds without a common centre. Europe reduces emissions, but other actors prefer different goals, from energy security to domestic demand growth – said Fantacone –. Without a homogeneous international framework, the risk is that those who anticipate the transition pay a competitive cost that the market does not recognize.” For Acampora “the energy transition is necessary, but it must be fair and sustainable: Today Italian companies already pay a competitive gap that weighs on investments, employment and growth. We need, therefore, concrete choices to guarantee energy more secure, less expensive and within the reach of all the Italian entrepreneurial fabric”.
“Today banks, businesses and Public Administration are assessed on the ability to reduce energy risks, measure emissions and ensure reliable data – said Best –. Energy transition is a condition to access credit and participate in the market. And it is a shared responsibility and a concrete opportunity to build a more modern, competitive and aligned Italy to Europe.”.
The Report highlights three transition models. In the United States, the change of administration in 2025 closed the “green” season open with the Inflation Reduction Act, reorienting policies towards the maintenance of market shares of fossil fuels, a revision of incentives and the introduction of duties on clean technologies. The Report defines this dynamic as a form of “climate whiplash”, highlighting the risk of a brake on green investments. The European Union, while maintaining a trajectory consistent with Green Deal, compares with higher energy costs than the US and Asia and with increasing competitive pressure on industrial chains, particularly in photovoltaics producing modules in Europe costs 35% to 65% more today than in China. China continues to drive the growth of renewables – with more than 260 GW of new capacity in 2024 – but cannot yet renounce coal: 25 GW of new power stations were approved in the first six months of 2025. Chinese emissions, inspired by the speed of economic growth, continue to grow and reach the most historic.
The process of technological innovation has not yet been translated into a structural reduction of emissions, although the peak is now close. In this international scenario, Italy presents a two-step trend. The two-year period 2023- 2024 marked an unprecedented acceleration: emissions decreased on average by over 5%, energy efficiency improved by 3.4%, and 13.4 GW of new renewable capacity were installed, bringing the national total over 74.5 GW. The dependence on Russian gas collapsed from 40% of 2021 to 9,5% in 2024, thanks to new contracts with Azerbaijan (+43%), the strong increase in GNL import (+49.8%) and the activation of Piombino regasifier. Diversification also reduced the geographical concentration of fossil fuel supplies. The 2025, however, marks a weakening of this trend. The emissions are estimated at 371.7 MtCO2eq, in a slight increase (+0.2%). The share of renewable energy consumption falls to 21.7%, mainly due to the collapse of hydroelectric (-21.5%), while the use of natural gas grows (+2.1%). The total energy demand decreases by 1% and the slowdown is mainly concentrated in the ETS sectors, where the emissions of the electricity generation go up to 62.2 MtCO2eq (+3.9%).
In the ESR sectors, the reduction continues but at too slow pace: the transports drop by 1.3%, while the civil sector returns to grow (+2.2%) for greater use of gas for heating. From the geographical point of view, the decree on the Appropriate Areas shows a very heterogeneous country. Lazio is the region closest to its target 2030, having already reached 54.5% of the target, while other regions – such as Aosta Valley and Molise – are under 15%. According to the forecasts of the CER model, decarbonization should resume moderately in 2026 (-0.5%) and strengthen in 2027, when emissions could fall to 363,9 MtCO2eq (- 1.6%). The return on a more solid trajectory would be favoured by the increase in electricity production, which in 2027 could reach the 149 TWh, with an expanding photovoltaic up to 63,5 TWh.
the report also notes how access to finance tends to promote enterprises with energy reduction projects, efficiency or conversion. For many SMEs this means that the transition is no longer a reputational option, but a necessary condition, both to obtain credit and to maintain competitiveness on the markets.
– Photo IPA Agency –
(ITALPRESS).
