ROMA (ITALPRESS) – The Egyptian analyst Abu Bakr al-Dib, consultant of the Arab Center for Studies and researcher specialized in international relations and economics, outlined a detailed comparison of the economic holding capacity of Israel and Iran in the face of the ongoing air war, concluding that “Israel prevails in the short term, but Iran demonstrates greater resilience in a prolonged federation conflict”. According to al-Dib in an interview with the Italpress agency, the economic losses declared so far by Tel Aviv in relation to the air conflict amounted to approximately 2,93 billion dollars, a figure that represents a limited portion of the Israeli GDP (about 600 billion dollars), but which is the first sign of a possible economic shock able to rapidly aggravate if the hostilities were to last months.
“If the war continues with the same intensity for a month or more – the analyst explained – the total cost could reach 1.5-2% of GDP. Three-four months of conflict would turn a manageable expense into a structural pressure that could threaten growth, widen the deficit, grow public debt and undermine the trust of investors, with direct risks on Israel’s credit rating.”.
Al-Dib has outlined several temporal thresholds: a month or two of intense war would be absorbable without recession; three months would become difficult but still manageable; six months would lead to a technical recession; a whole year could lead to a deep recession with generalized trust crisis, escape of capital, depreciation of currency and collapse of investments. On the Iranian front, the researcher emphasized that the economy of Tehran (Pil nominal around 350 billion dollars) is structurally different: “Iran has been used for decades to sanctions and chronic pressure, which gives it a greater ability to endure prolonged financial shock. Israel, on the other hand, is deeply integrated into the global financial system and depends on the trust of investors and capital flows: this makes it more vulnerable to a long-term war.”.
In the short term Israel enjoys net advantages – easy access to credit, solid financial reserves, advanced technology – but over six months the balance is reversed: “The Iranian economy is semi-isolated, it does not depend on international markets or foreign investments, and has internal mechanisms of adaptation to inflation and crisis. Israel is exposed to sudden waves of panic, capital flows and currency instability.”.
Al-Dib recalled the lessons learned from the Gaza War: “So far the Israeli economy has maintained despite military operations, but if the current conflict directly affected the economic heart of the country, losses would pass from sectors (tourism, services, southern areas) to systems, with devastating effects on investments, currency and financial flows.”.
In summary, according to the Egyptian analyst, “Israel is stronger in the management of a short and intense crisis” thanks to its financial and productive power, but it becomes progressively more fragile as the conflict extends, due to the dependence on global trust. Iran, even with a smaller and less productive economy, has a greater resilience in a prolonged war of friction, thanks to the habit of sanctions, state control over key sectors and the ability to adapt internally without depending on foreign markets.
“If the clash lasts months – Abu Bakr al-Dib concluded – Israel is likely to move from temporary losses to a real structural crisis on deficits, debt, currency and investments, while Iran will be able to absorb pressure through internal control mechanisms, thus transforming a war of logging into a relative advantage of long-term economic holding.”.
-Photo press office at Dib-
(ITALPRESS).
