ROME (ITALPRESS) – By 2024, Italy’s greenhouse gas emissions have been reduced by 4.3 percent, a synthesis of a 0.7 percent decrease in consumption and an increased use of renewable sources, with the share of national energy demand coverage rising to 21.4 percent. This is the estimate contained in the updated CER (European Research Center) Report “On the Road to Transition,” presented at the Banca del Fucino headquarters in Rome.The study indicates how narrow the road to energy transition has become. Acknowledging on the one hand the relevant advances achieved and on the other hand the distance to the established goals. Speakers at the meeting included Stefano Fantacone, ERC Research Director, Vladimiro Giacchè, Head of Communication, Studies and Digital Innovation Directorate Banca del Fucino, Paolo Guerrieri Paleotti, Chairman of the ERC Scientific Committee and PSIA Science Po, Antonio Misiani, Head of Economy and Finance, Enterprise and Infrastructure of the Democratic Party, Aurelio Regina, Confindustria Delegate for Energy, and Sole 24 Ore journalist Paolo Bricco. Also present was Francesco Ferrante, ERC Scientific Advisor for Technological Innovation and University of Cassino. “A lot of progress has been made and it is right to highlight it. More should be made based on European goals and the demands placed on us by the preservation of the planet. We need to find a solution, otherwise,” Fantacone explained, “we risk compromising the whole process. European public opinions are exhibiting a certain disaffection for the transition process because they have been displaced in the face of the costs. “With respect to the difficulties to be faced, there is a threefold pattern in energy transition, according to what Fantacone illustrated: the U.S. neutrality, the ambitious but “clueless” strategy in Europe, and the real strategy of industrial policy and development in China.”China’s industrial policy tends to build a highly integrated supply chain at all stages of production,” said Giacchè, who spoke to give a snapshot of the automotive sector between China and Europe, compared to a complementary report done by Banca del Fucino on Overcapacity and the issue of China’s foreign trade surplus and tariffs. “European industrial policies are late, very complex and currently set unrealistic targets. More realistic decarbonization targets would be needed by moving the 2035 target further ahead.” “The winning aspect,” which makes the difference in the case of China, he said, “is a long-term industrial policy that is effectively integrated at the European level, going beyond the Franco-German condominium. “The Cer report shows that from a sectoral point of view, the emissions decline for 2024 is highly uneven, with a 17.7 percent reduction in sectors covered by the ETS Directive and instead a 1.5 percent increase in ESR sectors.Among the energy intensive ETS sectors, emissions in power generation combustion plants (-23.8 percent) and manufacturing (-8.7 percent) are estimated to decline, reductions linked to less use of coal.As for the ESR sectors, the year-end figure would show an increase in climate-altering substances in Aviation (+6.7 percent, driven by tourism travel), Transportation (+5.4 percent), Agriculture (+2.2) and Waste (+1.2 percent). In contrast, emissions in the Civil (-1.5%) and Industry (-5.3%) sectors would be down.Looking at consumption: on the demand side, a further decline is estimated for gas use (-0.7%) and a similar percentage increase for oil (+0.8%). In absolute terms, total consumption satisfied by these two fossil sources would fall by more than 5 Mtoe. Demand met by renewable sources would mark an increase of 5.7 percent (+1.6 Mtoe). During the last four years, fossil source consumption fell by 4 points (from 78 percent to 74 percent). During the same period, the increase for renewables was 15.4%.The trends for the 2023-2024 biennium further lower the trend figure for emissions and consumption. So this is a brilliant result, but it is not enough to close the gap to the trajectory consistent with the European 2030 target. A similar argument must be made in the case of consumption, which fell below the long-term trend in 2023, but still placed far above the target trajectory. For renewables, Italy has moved closer to the trajectory implied by the RED III Directive, in effect since last November 20, which requires member states to increase the share of renewables to at least 42.5 percent by 2030. Given the levels achieved in the two-year period 2023-2024, the required increase would be just over 3.5 percentage points annually.On the generation side, Terna data show that in the two-year period 2023-2024 the installed capacity of renewable sources for power generation in Italy increased significantly, +8.8 percent in 2022 and +8.7 percent between the end of 2023 and October 2024. Currently, the installed capacity for power generation from renewable sources is 75.2 GW.The growing dynamic mainly pertains to solar energy. When comparing with 2021, there is an increase of more than 13 GW of installed capacity from photovoltaics. Wind power generation is also increasing (+1.6 GW), while the contributions from bioenergy and geothermal are residual. Hydropower maintains an important weight, but has remained substantially unchanged over time due to such diverse causes as water scarcity, difficulties in obtaining new concessions, and economic convenience defined in dispatching. According to these dynamics, the achievement of the goals outlined by the PNIEC would be attainable. In the most recent annual average, the gap to the PNIEC target would remain only 6 GW, while if the increase in installed power capacity for renewables remained at the 2019-2022 rates, the gap would be wider (41 GW).
– Bank of Fucino press office photo –
(ITALPRESS).
