ROMA (ITALPRESS) – In February the misery index of Confcommercio is confirmed to 8,6 with the same value detected in January, month in which more favorable dynamics of the labor market and an inflation for the goods and services of high frequency of purchase more contained have caused a sharp resize. The estimate of the last month is a summary of a marginal increase in the rate of inflation for high-frequency goods and services of purchase (2.0% from January 1.9%), and a stabilization of the rate of unemployment extended down to 5.7%. On the side of the labour market in February, after the positive results of January, a substantial stabilization is assessed both in the number of employees and in employment seekers. Dynamics that would leave the official unemployment rate at 5.1%, the lowest figure since the beginning of the monthly survey.
On the side of the seasonally adjusted standard working units (Ula) affected by the different forms of wage integration (CIG and FIS), it is estimated to remain of a situation of poor dynamism, with an extended expected unemployment rate confirming to 5.7%. According to the first indications in February 2026 the inflation of goods and services of high frequency of purchase has been attested, on an annual basis, to 2.0% (1.9% the revised data of January), highlighting a more contained economic dynamic than the general data. In perspective, in the immediate future inflation should move on a moderate path of growth. The rise in February was determined by some occasional factors (increasing excise duties on tobacco and the effects on the tourist industry of the Winter Olympics) intended to return and the tendency to increase some energy could be balanced by a lower dynamic of food prices.
Fears remain on the possible effects that could have, in the coming months, a prolonged increase in the costs of energy raw materials and restrictions on certain trade routes throughout the price system. At present, evaluations of the timing and size of a possible “inflationary bubble” appear, however, uncertain and premature. Minor fears are linked to the prospects of the labour market for a long time in slowing down. In view of the positive signs emerging in this early 2026 it is estimated that, even in the coming months, employment moves at very weak pace, but, however, positive. The combination of these dynamics should help to maintain the area of social discomfort, net of small variations, to the historical minimums, favoring that recovery of the confidence of families necessary to feed the signs of moderate recovery of consumption emerged in the most recent periods.
– Photo press office Confcommercio –
(ITALPRESS).
