ROMA (ITALPRESS) – “The duration of the conflict was initially substimate and continues to prolong. With its protraction, the risks for extraction and distribution infrastructure increase. In the coming weeks, the development of safety conditions along the main energy routes will be crucial, in particular in the Hormuz Strait, where naval traffic has almost zeroed after the start of hostilities. This variable will depend on the intensity and duration of global energy shock.” Thus the Governor of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, on the occasion of the XVI MAECI Conference – Banca d’Italia.
“The ongoing conflict is already causing unprecedented interruptions in global energy supply chains. Its extension to the Gulf countries has forced some of them to suspend the extraction of hydrocarbons, with immediate and potentially persistent effects on international markets. Even assuming a rapid cessation of hostilities, the return to production normal would be slow: at the technical time necessary for the restoration of the extractive capacity would be added those for the reactivation of the entire energy supply. Recruitments are significant and are mainly striking the refined products essential for industry and agriculture, where strozzatures of the most acute offer are emerging,” he adds.
“The tensions on energy markets concern not only for the immediate impact on inflation and growth, but also for the possible repercussions on financial stability. In the presence of high volatility and uncertainty, the pre-existing fragilities could turn into shock amplification channels. The framework is made more delicate by the high levels of public debt in many economies, which limit the space for budgetary interventions and increase the risks for financial markets – continues -. Changes in the perception of risk by global investors can thus quickly result in tensions on sovereign stocks and capital flows. Reports in this direction have already emerged: the appreciation of the dollar, the pressure on long-term rates and capital flows from emerging countries reflect an increasing preference for activities considered safer (flight to safety)”.
– Photo IPA Agency –
(ITALPRESS).
