Just weeks ago, optimism was high within the center-left coalition for the upcoming autumn regional elections. There was even talk of a clean sweep, a potential 3-0 victory over the center-right. However, this optimism has been shattered by the split in the coalition, led by Giuseppe Conte, the leader of the Five Star Movement (M5S). Conte has refused to associate his party’s symbol with those of the Renzi-led Italia Viva (IV). This decision leaves the electoral landscape uncertain, especially in Liguria, where the vote on October 27 and 28 could go either way. The same uncertainty looms over Umbria, where the M5S’s stance for the November 17-18 elections is still unclear. The center-left now seems assured of victory only in Emilia-Romagna, regardless of whether they maintain the broader coalition.
Tight Race in Liguria A poll conducted by Noto for the TV program Porta a Porta on October 1 revealed a tight contest in Liguria. Marco Bucci, the center-right candidate, is polling at 46%, while Andrea Orlando of the center-left is close behind. On the same day, Affaritaliani.it published data from internal center-right polls, placing Bucci at 49-50% and Orlando at 45-46%. The recent exit of Italia Viva from the center-left coalition could have a significant impact on these numbers, with a Tecnè poll from September 20 suggesting that IV holds around 2% of the vote in the region.
Uncertainty in Umbria The situation in Umbria is equally precarious. While there are no recent polls, an analysis of results from the European elections on June 8-9 shows that parties supporting center-right governor Donatella Tesei would secure 49.6% of the vote, compared to the 46.6% held by the broader center-left alliance. Any potential rift within the center-left in Umbria could significantly weaken the candidacy of Stefania Proietti, who is currently relying on this coalition. During the European elections, the Stati Uniti d’Europa list, which included Italia Viva, garnered 3% of the vote.
Center-Left Likely to Win in Emilia-Romagna The center-left appears poised for victory in Emilia-Romagna, with or without a broad coalition. A poll published in mid-September by Quorum-Youtrend for the local Democratic Party (PD) put Michele de Pascale, the center-left candidate, at 56.8%, compared to 43.2% for the center-right candidate, Elena Ugolini. Looking at the European election results from June, the center-left holds 45.8% of the vote, while the center-right stands at 40.6%, even without the support of Italia Viva or the M5S.
Political Landscape at a Crossroads As the election dates draw closer, the fractured alliances within the center-left could have far-reaching consequences. The split from Italia Viva and the unclear position of the M5S create an unpredictable environment, particularly in Liguria and Umbria. Meanwhile, Emilia-Romagna remains the center-left’s strongest stronghold, offering some stability amidst the growing uncertainty.
