ROMA (ITALPRESS) – The prolongation of the crisis in the Middle East, whose effects at the moment seem limited to the resumption of inflation, makes the reading of the economic framework and developments more complex in the short term. High-frequency indicators for the first months of 2026 indicate that the Italian economy entered the new year with a comforting dynamism. Even with signs of weakening of employment dynamics and with the structural fragility of industry, which reached a stalemate point, the demand for families and the positive trend of tourism, both Italian and foreign, had generated important recovery ideas that, in our estimates, would be translated into a conjunctural growth of GDP in the first quarter of 2026 equal to three-tenths of point. This is what we read in a Confcommercio analysis.
The reflections of these moderate pressures on improvement, mainly linked to the activities of services, seem to be continued also in April, month in which an estimated GDP change of 0.3% on March and 1.3% on the same month of 2025.
On the weakness of the trust of the operators, for now it makes increase the solidity of the economic fundamentals: employment at the highest, inflation still under control, growth of the real disposable income. As a result, the demand for families in the metric of the IC has recorded an increase of 1.0% tendential in the first trimester. However, this favourable result is not a guarantee of keeping the current profile in the near future.
In fact, the increased consumption propensity on the part of families, with positive effects finally also on segments such as the long-term suffering automotive, risks, on the basis of the possible increase in inflation and the worsening of trust, to know in the short period abrupt braking with negative impacts on economic activity and employment.
Inflation, according to our estimates, should record in April a conjunctural change of 0.7% bringing growth on an annual basis to 2.3%, the figure more from November 2023. In the last month, inflation is again mainly linked to the effects of energy price turbulence. The substantial stabilisation observed in recent days in the prices of energy raw materials does not diminish, however, the fears of a possible transfer, in the short term, of impulses also to other sectors.
At present, it is impossible to identify the timing and the ways in which the conflict will be resolved. Uncertainty amplifies market volatility and concerns about potential supply issues.
-Photo IPA Agency-
(ITALPRESS).
