ROMA (ITALPRESS) – The Council of the Parliamentary Budgetary Office (UPB) validated on 29 September the macroeconomic forecasts of the Public Finance Programme Document (DPFP) 2026, at the conclusion of a procedure of comparison with the Mef over the past few weeks. The SUPB assessed that overall estimates of the main variables of the DFPF 2026 macroeconomic framework do not have significant deviations from an acceptable range, although in some cases the forecasts fall on the upper end or just beyond the estimates of the UPB panel.
In particular: in 2026-27 the growth of real GDP is maintained for two tenths of percentage point below the upper end defined by the UPB panel and is aligned with the median values, while in the two-year period 2028-29 marginally exceeds the upper limit, for 0.1 percentage points per year; The growth combined on the entire horizon 2026-29, equal to 3.2%, is substantially consistent with expectations, only slightly exceeding (0.2 percentage points) the estimates of the panel.
The variation of nominal GDP – variable directly relevant to public finance – is plausible, located near the panel median and aligned with the expectations of the UB; The cumulative increase in nominal GDP falls within the evaluation range, attesting just above the panel’s expected average. These estimates are carried out in a fragile and unstable international scenario, so macroeconomic conditions could change significantly and in a short time. The main risk factors can be identified in four areas: geopolitical tensions, wars and protectionism, greater sources of uncertainty with effects on the economy of difficult quantification; the dynamic of investments, on which risk factors associated with the evolution of the international but also national framework, the latter characterized by uncertainties on the accumulation of public capital after the conclusion of the PNRR.
The volatility of markets and monetary policies: seen also the current tensions on the bond markets and the monetary restrictions recently adopted by the EDF, in the medium term an increase of the aversion to the risk of operators, which would be transmitted on the prices of sovereign bonds of high debt countries, including Italy; the climate and environmental risk, to be considered structural element of vulnerability: the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events caused by the general economic and environmental impacts. The PUPB will also evaluate the programmatic macroeconomic framework of the DPFP, which incorporates the effects of budgetary adjustment, communicating the outcome during the next parliamentary hearing on the Document itself.
– Photo Ipa Agency –
(ITALPRESS).
