ROME (ITALPRESS) – In 2024, consumption, overall, exceeds the pre-Covid level by about 17 billion, but compared to 2023 they show no signs of significant recovery (+0.5% vs. 1% in 2023) and are slowing down in all regions except Liguria and Umbria, where they grow by 7 and 4 tenths of a point respectively, and Molise where they are stable; as for GDP, in 2024 the estimate is for a growth of 0.8 percent (down from the +0.9 percent estimated in August); at the territorial level, however, the South grows more than twice as fast as the North (in 2024 +1.2 percent vs. +0.5 percent), but consumption in the South shows greater weakness with +0.4 percent for 2024, compared to 0.5 percent in the North; the wide gap between the two macro areas is confirmed by the data on GDP per capita, which registers a gap of more than 18.000 euros (21,714 euros in the South compared to 39,786 euros in the North), and by the weak demographic dynamics, which in the South is a further element of structural criticality: the population of the South, in fact, has decreased by about 161,000 between 2022 and 2024, compared to an increase of 125,000 in the North, contributing to limiting the development potential of the southern regions. This slowdown testifies to a still fragile economic fabric, despite the positive contribution of foreign tourism, which has supported demand in some regions of this area of the country. These are the main findings emerging from the Confcommercio Studies Office’s analysis of regional economies.Updating regional estimates of gross product and consumption in the territory (the latter made by both Italians and foreigners) and statistical evidence for the first two quarters of 2024 confirm the feeling that, in Italy, the income-confidence-consumption circuit has somehow jammed: higher real disposable incomes, due to employment growth, the effects of contract renewals and the drastic drop in inflation, have not yet translated into higher consumption. This is the weak point of the current economic situation.The criticality in the dynamics of consumption in the territory, despite the positive contribution of foreigners’ tourism, is well seen in the small real rate of change in spending for 2024. Growth of half a percentage point is hardly a comforting indication. This assessment is consistent with a lowering of the GDP change estimate for 2024 to 0.8 percent from 0.9 percent last August. The regional distribution of GDP change rates shows better performance of the South than the North in both 2023 and 2024. The problem of poor consumption dynamics is also confirmed for the South. In fact, although consumption has returned, overall, to pre-Covid levels, in the two-year period, in general, the marginal propensity to consume would appear to be stranded, on average, around values between 0.3 and 0.4, calculated on aggregate data on a regional basis.A certain relative recovery of GDP also emerges, a phenomenon, however, influenced by the negative population dynamics in the South: preliminary estimates indicate a loss of population for Italy, as a whole, of 38 thousand in the comparison between 2024 and 2022, with a growth, in the same period, of 125 thousand in the North and a reduction of 161 thousand in the South.Therefore, beyond the result of the ratio of Product to population, “the fact remains that demographics in the Mezzogiorno is a structural factor of fragility,” Confcommercio stresses. For the gaps in absolute monetary terms to be reduced, it is necessary for the ratio of changes in GDP per capita between poor and rich areas to be higher than the ratio of average levels of the same quantity (always GDP per capita), which, precisely is verified for both 2023 and 2024. On the other hand, the narrowing of the gap is rather small (less than 350 euros real per capita in the two-year period as shown by the data in the penultimate row) while the gap even in 2024 remains above 18 thousand euros at 2020 prices. “The Italian economy is in a complex phase: the South is growing more than the North, but the gap still remains wide. Of general concern are the demographic crisis and the weakness of consumption: there is a problem of confidence, despite the increase in real incomes,” explains the president of Confcommercio, Carlo Sangalli. “We need more courage in the revision of public spending, in order to lighten the tax burden that penalizes families and businesses.
– Photo: Photogram Agency -(ITALPRESS).
