Cautious optimism has emerged within Kamala Harris’s campaign, while Donald Trump’s team dismisses the encouraging signs as mere fabrications. Both camps are citing various polls to bolster their claims. A recent Des Moines Register/Mediacon poll conducted by respected pollster Ann Selzer shows Harris with a narrow lead in Iowa, boasting 47% to Trump’s 44%. This is particularly notable given Iowa’s strong Republican lean in the past two elections and is interpreted as a sign of momentum for Harris, especially among women voters.
Trump’s pollster, Tony Fabrizio, labeled these results as “absurd,” accusing the media of using them to dampen Republican enthusiasm. He finds it implausible that Harris could be leading among seniors, a demographic that supported Trump in 2020, and claims she cannot be ahead by 20 points among women. Fabrizio referenced another survey from Emerson College, which shows Trump with a lead, echoing results from four years ago. Meanwhile, a New York Times/Siena College poll released on Sunday indicates Harris is gaining ground in states like North Carolina and Wisconsin, while Trump maintains leads in Arizona and Michigan.
With approximately 70 million people already having voted, including 40% of respondents from the Times/Siena poll, the race remains tight, with candidates effectively neck-and-neck. The dynamics of early voting may favor Trump among those who vote on November 5, though turnout remains to be seen. Fabrizio disputes the Times survey, claiming it samples too many left-leaning voters, while the newspaper acknowledges challenges in reaching Trump supporters compared to 2020.
Political strategist Angelo Greco from Harris’s campaign argues that pollsters are hesitant to release results that diverge from the norm. He believes that early voting trends and on-the-ground sentiments contribute to a sense of cautious optimism for Harris. Although Republicans are also experiencing promising early voting figures compared to previous elections, the turnout among demographic groups favoring Harris may pave multiple paths to victory.
